Nats Notes Volume 2 2017

Pressure Points to Watch

The Nats have all of the pieces necessary to repeat as N.L. Eastern Division Champions in 2017 but they have several pressure points to watch as they navigate through spring training and the early season.  Any one of these areas in the roster or the lineup could begin to leak and if not effectively repaired in time cause the whole ship to sink or run aground.

Trea Turner – After being promoted to the big club in 2016, Turner was unbelievable.  He hit for average and power, he ran wild on the bases and in the outfield.  No one in baseball had a greater impact on his team than Trea Turner.  Now for 2017.  He has been moved to shortstop, replacing Danny Espinosa, and although shortstop is his natural position, he is feeling the pressure of being compared to Espinosa defensively.  His first chance of the spring was a routine ground ball to his left and he rushed the throw and tried to show off his arm and pulled Adam Lind off the bag for an error.  Today he got to a ball in the hole but failed to field it because he was not relaxed.  Trea is a great athlete and a great player and he needs to just be himself in the field and not try to be Danny Espinosa or Ozzie Smith defensively.  Last year he did a great job differentiating offense and defense and the Nats need him to do it even more this year.  If not the pressure of playing shortstop will affect his offense and Washington can not win it all without Trea Turner leading the way.

Bryce Harper – 2016 was a very strange year for Mr. Harper.  He was Mickey Mantle at his best for about 6 weeks and then for 4 months he was a decent player with occasional power.  He was married in 2016 and the Nationals hope that marriage brings back the real Bryce Harper in right field and at the plate.  Harper’s early season at bats will be very important because he never broke out of his deep slump last year for any significant stretch and if he starts slowly he may begin to press again.  The Nats need Bryce Harper to be Bryce Harper.

Adam Eaton – Ben Revere came to Washington known for his great on base percentage and his ability to be a pest at the top of the lineup.  Injuries and pressure seemingly got to Ben and he never recovered enough to contribute to the run to the pennant.  If Trea Turner had not taken over at the top of the lineup, the Nationals would have never won the East in 2016.  Adam Eaton needs to relax and not try to be anyone other than who he is.  He does not need to prove that he is worth all the assets the Nats gave up for him.  His early season at bats will be key to making the Nationals a grittier team, more like the Giants and the Cardinals.

Max Scherzer – It turns out that Max was pitching late last season with a stress fracture in the ring finger of his pitching hand.  The injury is still bothering him, causing him to adjust the grip of his fastball.  The pressure on Max is going to be to balance his desire to get on the mound and his need to be completely healed.  If the Nats stumble out of the gate without Scherzer in the rotation he will feel obligated to get on the mound sooner rather than later.  How the Nationals deal with this difficult situation will be a key to their success in 2017.

Stephen Strasburg – 15-1 record on August 1, 2016 with a 2.63 ERA and finished the season with a  15-4 record with a 3.60 ERA.  As has become the commonplace for the Nationals, Stephen Strasburg dealt with an injury in 2016.  With Max Scherzer on the shelf for a time this year Strasburg has to be a number one starter for a time and then he needs to sustain his excellence for an entire season and into the playoffs for the Nats to go all the way.

The Closer Committee – Someone has to handle the pressure well enough to close.  Spring Training will be helpful in identifying candidates and suspects but when the bright lights of the regular season come on the pressure will ramp up infinitely.  Who will take the job and will he implode?

What would Bill Belichick Do?

The Kirk Cousins saga continues in Washington D.C.  The New England Patriots are seemingly the anthesis of the Washington Redskins (They win consistently while never overpaying and let veterans walk when necessary because they know how to fill in just the right pieces through the draft and free agency) so they would be a good model to follow.  I believe if we could get Bill Belichick to handle the situation this is what he would do.

First he would prioritize the Redskins needs based on the players they currently have under contract.  At this moment the Redskins have approximately 110 Million Dollars committed for 2017 with an expected salary cap of 160 Million Dollars.  The 110 Million under contract does not include Kirk Cousins, Pierre Garçon, Desean Jackson or Tom Compton.  At this time the Redskins needs are as follows:

  1.  A run stopping Inside Linebacker and Two Safeties.
  2. A Defensive Lineman
  3. An NFL Running Back
  4. At least one Wide Receiver
  5. An Interior Offensive Lineman
  6. Another Cornerback
  7. Another Inside Linebacker
  8. A Quarterback if they don’t sign Cousins

Now Belichick would start by offering Cousins 16 Million Dollars per year for 7 years.  He might be willing to pay 18 Million per year with certain stipulations about Cap friendly concessions down the road.  He would not Franchise Tag Cousins!  If Kirk doesn’t want to play here for reasonable money then let him go.  Belichick would be ready to play next year with Colt McCoy and sign a veteran back up while drafting another QB in a later round in the Draft.

He would then analyze the Free Agent and Draft landscape for a Run Stopping Inside Linebacker.  He would prefer a veteran who could also call the defenses but if no Free Agent is available he would draft the Best Run Stopper available.  If no Run Stoppers are going to be available at No. 17 he would sign the Best Available Free Agent Run Stoppers at Inside Linebacker.  He would get a Run Stopper.

Next he would attack the Safety issues in similar fashion.  If a great Safety is available in the draft he would draft him. If not he would sign two Free Agent Safeties.  Even if he drafted a Safety in the First Round he would still sign a veteran from Free Agency.

In the Draft he would target next a Defensive Lineman, Running Back, Offensive Lineman, Quarterback and Cornerback.  He would try to get more picks to add depth to the Special Teams.

At the same time Belichick would sign Pierre Garçon for sure and another Free Agent wide receiver.

Bill Belichick has proven over the years that you can win with many different levels of quarterback play as long as you have a solid defense and a strong offensive line.  Bill would have the Redskins in contention next year and there would be no question who was in charge and what the plan is.  Strong, steady defense, excellent special teams and quality offensive line play with multiple weapons at wide receiver and running back will win consistently and when mixed with great quarterback play will win Super Bowls.

Man to Man or Zone

I would always start basketball practice with a question – “What is the purpose of defense?”  Players would answer, “steal the ball”, “keep the other team from scoring”, or “stop your man.”  I would respond, “The purpose of defense is to get the other team to take the worst possible shot!” You see that if you can get a team to take a bad shot most of the time you will have a chance for a rebound because most bad shots are missed.  If therefore you are a good rebounding team every bad shot basically becomes a turnover by your opponent and you have created a turnover while focusing on the most important thing – guarding the nest.

You see in “steal the ball”, “keep the other team from scoring” and “stop your man” your focus is not on the most important thing – the nest.  In each case you are either focused on the ball, the scoreboard or the man and not the nest.  Just like with bees, the nest is everything.  When an intruder tries to get close to the nest we defenders swarm, pushing the intruder away from the nest.  As defenders we start at the nest and push out from there, collectively not individually.

Playing defense collectively lends itself to zone principles.  I believe even if you intend on playing man to man defense as your primary defense you should start by teaching zone defense.  A zone defense when taught well will teach your team the fundamentals of playing team defense.  It will teach your team the importance of help side defense and will make them better rebounders because rebounding out of a zone defense takes discipline and floor balance.  A zone defense will train your focus on the nest and teach your players the importance of teamwork.  When you switch to man to man after playing a zone well your team will by nature help each other and scramble to close out on the back side. Most importantly it will set your focus correctly – on the nest.

Nats Notes – Volume 1 2017

The Nats can only pray that the weather on Opening Day is as nice as the weather in Washington today – 74 and sunny. It has been a strange winter in Washington for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the Nats lack of activity.  But still they are picked to win the National League East.  In my opinion the following questions will decide their fate in the East and beyond.

1) Who is the real Bryce Harper?  He needs to be a .285 hitter with .350 OBP, hit 30 home runs and drive in 95.  If he’s not the Nats will never go far.

2) Who is the real Stephen Strasburg?  He needs to win 15 games and be healthy down the stretch and in the playoffs.

3) How good is Trea Turner?  If he hits .300, steals 30 bases, scores 100 runs and hits 15 home runs he can be an average defensive shortstop and no one cares.  If not he needs to be an above average shortstop.  If he does both he could be MVP.

4) How good a hitter is Daniel Murphy?  Was last year an abiration or is he really that good.  He needs to be close.

5) Is Adam Eaton closer to Pete Rose or Ben Revere?  We need him to be a scrappy, get on base, batting lead off or second hitter who has a little pop and brings an attitude.  If he does he’s worth the steep price we paid.

6) Will the bullpen come together or fall apart?  Lots of arms, lots of concerns.  Someone needs to pitch the 7th, someone needs to pitch the 8th and someone needs to close.  Second biggest concern on the team.

7) Will the catchers hit above .225 or hit 10 home runs?  Biggest concern on the team.

8) Will Ryan Zimmerman or Jayson Werth hit .275 or hit 20 home runs or drive in 75 runs.  One of them needs to.

9). Will Anthony Rendon get his stroke back for the whole year?  He needs to hit .275 with 25 home runs and drive in 85 runs.

10) Will the bench be a strength again this year?  I hope so.

Go Nats!

Super Bowl Thoughts – Patient Endurance

A tiny acorn falls through the cracks of a massive bolder apparently lost, never again to see the light of day.  But day after day, moment by moment the acorn persists at what it does best until one day it bursts forth and the massive bolder crumbles,  unable to stop the tree’s incredible growth.

On Sunday evening in Houston, the New England Patriots were left for dead but an incredible confluence of circumstance, luck and patient endurance allowed Bill Belchick and Tom Brady to stand tall again, holding the Lombardi Trophy high overhead.  As strange as it sounds the interception that Brady threw late in the first half actually hurt the Falcons late in the game and especially in overtime.  In the fourth quarter, the catch by Julian Edelman was incredible but the defender’s leg being in just the right place was at least fornutate.  But the Patriot’s persistent belief in their coaches and system ultimately brought them back from the dead.

Because of the “pick six” late in the first half, the Falcons ran only 19 plays in the entire first half.  They only ran 27 offensive plays in the entire second half.  The New England Patriots even while losing 28 – 9 at the end of the third quarter had a distinct advantage because they had run so many plays.  It is much more exhausting to play defense than it is to run offense.  By game’s end the New England Patriots had run an incredible 93 offensive play while the Falcons had run only 46. (the average NFL team runs 59 offensive plays in a game).

But more important than odd circumstances or lucky breaks, persistent belief in the system and steadfast hope were the main ingredients required for the Patriots to breakthrough.  Because the Falcons believed they had the quickness and athleticism to rush the passer with 4 and cover the Patriots receivers man to man all over the field the Patriots were running shallow crossing routs consistently throughout the first half.  The Falcons defenders did a great job covering those routes for two and a half quarters.  But then fatigue began to set in.  As the fourth quarter began, many teams would have panicked  down 28-9 but the Patriots stayed the course, believing in the system and in their players and coaches.  As the fourth quarter progressed, the Falcons defenders wore down more with each possession until back to back drives, the final drive followed quickly by an overtime drive, left them with legs that couldn’t react and minds that couldn’t think.

Just as the acorn just keeps growing not paying attention to the circumstances around it, the Patriots just do their job, trusting in who they are and obeying (listening attentively) their coaches.  And at the end, the Atlanta Falcons had no chance against the pressure of the patience.